With the recent announcement of Formula 2 driver Kimi Antonelli’s promotion to Mercedes next year, the 2025 Formula 1 grid is closer to being completed at last.

Antonelli becomes the third rookie to be signed and the most talked about by far. After Hamilton’s unexpected move to Ferrari, the open Mercedes seat has been a topic of contention over the past six months. The question of who would replace the seven-time world champion and undoubtedly the most successful driver of all time was at the forefront of most fans’ heads as the season developed. Only now, six months into the season, do we have our answer.

The announcement that Antonelli will be joining Mercedes in 2025 was far from surprising for those who’ve been paying attention this season. It’s clear that Mercedes perceives Antonelli – a young talent with a stellar junior career – as the future of the team. But, he wasn’t the only option leading up to the Italian Grand Prix and, in all honesty, there’s reason to believe he wasn’t the number-one choice.

Last year, Toto Wolff admitted that he regretted not signing Verstappen back in 2014. In the midst of embarking on a period of unprecedented success in Formula 1, the Brackley-based team didn’t have the space or the junior team to offer 16-year-old Verstappen a seat for the 2015 season. Instead, it was Red Bull who managed to nab the young prodigy and they have been reaping the rewards ever since.

Despite stating that Verstappen might not have been right for the team whilst Hamilton has been driving for them, it’s clear that Wolff has not given up hope on the Dutch world champion. With Red Bull seemingly falling apart at the seams after Horner’s offseason scandal and the departure of important personnel (namely, Adrian Newey) as well as Hamilton leaving for the Scuderia, Wolff was presented with his first real chance at securing Verstappen after nine years of patience and he hasn’t been quiet about his objectives.

It’s clear that Wolff wants Verstappen in the team. Though he’s put aside his hopes for the 2025 season, the Austrian businessman isn’t one to give up that easily. Not after he’s already failed once before. It’s likely that Wolff will have left his options open for the future, for any possibility that Verstappen might finally give up on the team that helped him secure three world championships. 

But what does this mean for the new Mercedes lineup?

After spending three seasons in Williams at the back of the grid, Russell made his debut for Mercedes at the beginning of the 2022 season. It was a long time coming both for fans of the driver and for Russell himself, who surely hadn’t expected to spend three agonising years fighting to secure mere point positions in a team which had long forgotten its glory days.

But Russell was prepared to play the long game. It’s evident that the British driver believed that, after establishing himself in Williams, he’d get the promotion to Mercedes he deserved. There, he’d finally get to prove himself against the best of them all: Sir Lewis Hamilton, himself. In his eyes, Hamilton would retire after some time and Russell would take his place as the team leader and first driver at Mercedes. Finally, he’d get his chance to fight for the coveted driver’s championship like he’s always wanted.

Except, this isn’t what happened.

Hamilton didn’t retire and, instead, his sudden move to a rival team destabilised Mercedes in ways they weren’t expecting. Suddenly, they were left with one driver who hadn’t quite proven himself as a championship contender and an empty seat with no one of a similar calibre to Hamilton available to fill it.

(Of course, Antonelli was an option. But he was untested, having skipped Formula 3 and with Prema not in its usual race-contending form.)

Verstappen became the second option, in Wolff’s eyes. It’s clear that Red Bull is not the efficient, unbeatable machine it once was. Despite still leading both championships, their position is in contention. McLaren’s car is far superior and the Austrian team has failed to seize a single race win since Spain, two months ago. With Newey and other important personnel leaving, it’s debatable whether Verstappen will want to stick with a team that could be slowly falling back into the background again. The three-time world champion won’t have the patience to wait for a championship-contending car like he did from 2016 to 2021.

So, if he’s still hungry for more and Mercedes looks to be the better option, would he dare to make the move?

This is what Wolff could be banking on.

Both Antonelli and Russell’s contracts take them to the end of the 2025 season, but what is Wolff’s plan beyond this? Nico Rosberg, an ex-Mercedes driver and world champion, believes that the two will experience a “shoot-out” next season. Meaning that the Mercedes drivers will find themselves not only battling the rest of the grid for the constructors’ and driver’s titles but each other for their seats, too. If Verstappen does finally decide to jump ship, it will be one of them he pushes out for 2025.

Most likely, it will be Russell who’ll find himself in the most danger.

Wolff regrets missing out on a talent like Verstappen, he won’t be likely to repeat his mistakes with Antonelli. It’s why he’s brought the Italian driver in so young and untested; the bitterness of losing out once hasn’t left him. He won’t repeat his mistakes for a second time. Despite Russell’s loyalty over the years, if it seems like Antonelli is matching him for pace next season (or if he’s beating him outright) he could find his position in Mercedes at risk. Especially if Verstappen makes that long-awaited step into the drivers’ market.

In truth, there’s reason to argue that it would be a mistake to drop either driver at the end of 2025. While Verstappen would be a huge addition to the team, he has already alluded to a lack of long-term commitment to the sport. Unless Mercedes can supply him with a championship-winning car from the very beginning, there’s reason to believe he might not want to invest in Mercedes the seasons they would need to become a championship-winning partnership.

Alternatively, both Russell and Antonelli are Mercedes Junior Drivers. While George has spent years proving his loyalty to the team, Antonelli will surely be inclined to return the commitment Mercedes has made to him. It’s a strong partnership that will surely work wonders for the team in the long run if it ends up working out.

Whether Mercedes will see this, however, is cause for concern. Bringing young drivers up from the feeder series too early has failed far more times than it has succeeded. If Antonelli feels his position is delicate before the season has even begun, his chances at success could be sabotaged. It doesn’t matter how assured he is in his own skills, there aren’t many people who can work with the pressure of a ticking clock hanging over their heads.

Even the greatest talents need nurturing somewhat. A threat like Verstappen over the drivers’ heads could do greater harm to the team than Mercedes might ever be anticipating.

But, then again, is it worth it when Max Verstappen is the one you’re betting it all on?

We’ll have to wait and see.