At Baku this weekend, we witnessed some of the finest wheel-to-wheel racing Formula 1 has had in a long time. Charles Leclerc and Oscar Piastri demonstrated exactly how it should be done: clean, fair and thrilling to watch. Yet, observing such exceptional racing between Leclerc and Piastri has only brought greater attention to the blunder from the two drivers behind them: Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez.

Perez remained a quiet threat for a large proportion of the race. Dipping in and out of the action, he kept himself relevant throughout the battle ahead of him. As the closing laps crept in and Leclerc’s tyres disappeared, it looked like the redemption Perez has been desperate for after a season of subpar performances was finally within reach.

However, the one thing that could stop the impending overtake from Perez quickly became known in Leclerc’s teammate, Sainz. Like Perez, Sainz reared his head towards the end of the race, demonstrating the pace he’d been able to reserve having clear air and no one to challenge him for the prior 32 laps. With Sainz joining the battle, it looked like Ferrari could play the team game to keep the approaching Perez at bay, protecting Leclerc’s second-place position and winning them essential points in the constructor’s championship battle.

A crucial defensive move from Leclerc on the second to last lap did exactly what it needed to do, keeping Perez at bay and killing the Red Bull’s momentum coming out of turn 1. For a moment, it looked like a double Ferrari podium was in the cards for the Italian team as Sainz was able to slip by. Not exactly what they might have wanted coming into this race, but a result to smooth the ache of losing out on a race win that could have been theirs.

Unfortunately, Sainz made a crucial mistake: he got greedy.

It’s not in any driver’s nature to not go for the move when a gap presents itself. This, everyone knows. Like a shark, the smallest hint of blood in the water is enough to kick any driver into action. Leclerc’s position was vulnerable, he didn’t have anything left in the tank to give and Sainz saw this as an opportunity. No one can truly fault him for this, despite how it might have negatively affected his teammate’s championship hopes if he had managed to pass.

Coming in to turn 2, Sainz had a look around the outside of his teammate. This gave Perez the racing line and the grip, putting Sainz on the back foot in this three-way battle. On the outside line, Sainz had to defend his newly won position from the Red Bull coming alongside him as they headed down the straight.

What followed was a stark contrary to the kind of wheel-to-wheel racing we’d witnessed between Piastri and Leclerc for the better part of the race. Sainz moved to the left, Perez moved to the right. Their tyres locked and they crashed. It was sloppy, amateur driving – avoidable. Perez crowded Sainz unnecessarily, but Sainz should have seen Perez on his left and not moved unnecessarily from his line.

In the end, Leclerc was an easy victim. Sainz and Perez both had at least one obvious opportunity left to make a move on the Ferrari. Sainz should’ve known better than to attempt a move coming out of turn 2, a place which is almost impossible to manage an overtake. If he hadn’t gone wide, giving Perez the racing line, he would’ve kept the P3 position at least until the next DRS zone.

Perez’s desperation, at the very least, was more understandable. Having lost out on a podium he’d managed to hold for nearly the entire race, it’s clear he was desperate to not give Sainz the advantage coming out of turn 2. Still, it was unnecessary from both drivers.

But was it unexpected?

“He is motivated to do something spectacular but I was probably not the right person to do that with.”

Finishing 8 seconds ahead of his teammate in Spain this year, this is what Leclerc had to say about the move Sainz made on him early in the race. It might have seemed like fair, hard racing, but Leclerc revealed that it was not the strategy they had discussed going into the race. They’d agreed to hold position, manage their tyres as long as possible and extend the stint. Instead, Leclerc came out with a damaged front wing and finished ahead of Sainz, anyway.

At that point, Sainz was at an unfavourable moment in his career. With Ferrari choosing to not extend his contract, signing Lewis Hamilton for the foreseeable future, the question of where Sainz was going to end up in 2026 was still unanswered. As Leclerc said, he was motivated to do something spectacular. He wanted to make a point to any teams considering him for the future. Whether he managed this, it’s uncertain.

Now we know that Sainz will be driving for Williams for 2026. It’s not exactly the front-running team he might have been gunning for. For the first time since he was a rookie in Toro Rosso, Sainz will be driving for a backmarker team. Sure, Williams has been making necessary improvements over the past couple of years, but it’s not the race-winning, championship-contending team the Spaniard would have been working for. Undeniably, he’ll be back to struggling for meagre points and missing the days when he was fighting for the P2 positions.

Whether this was Sainz’s mindset today, we won’t know for sure. But it doesn’t seem beyond belief to think that Sainz could be realising his chances at securing more wins and podiums are growing ever distant. With seven races to go, is he thinking that this might be his last opportunity to prove himself to a championship-contending team before he falls to the back of the grid once more?

“He knows his role and his target, so nobody is more eager than Checo to find his form again.”

Two weeks after the Spanish Grand Prix, Christian Horner said this about his driver’s 17th-place finish at Silverstone. Perez has been out of form for more than a year now. It’s clear in hindsight that the car is mostly to blame for the low performance this season. While it might have looked like Perez was falling behind once again at the beginning of the 2024 season, in reality, Max Verstappen was outperforming a car that has appeared impossible to drive ever since Miami.

However, Perez has been struggling long before this.

It’s not easy being Verstappen’s teammate. Others have fared far worse than Perez, but he’s in a position no driver wants to find themselves in. Red Bull doesn’t have the dominant car they once had, they’re barely clinging to the driver’s championship and the loss of the constructors has long been inevitable. It didn’t matter when Verstappen was winning everything, but having a strong driver in the second seat now seems as crucial as ever.

Therefore, Baku is the last thing Perez needed.

It’s a track he’s historically been strong at. With two wins under his belt, he had a chance at another this weekend. If not for a win, then at least for his first podium since China. The crash with Sainz was the worst thing that could have happened. A similar incident in Monaco had already handicapped Red Bull in terms of the budget cap and, surely, this was the last thing they wanted when updates appear essential for keeping up with McLaren and Ferrari.

Coming out of Baku, Perez’s position appears as fragile as ever. Both the driver and team couldn’t afford this outcome. Not when it’s allowed Norris (whose 16th-place start had seemed a blessed drop of luck) to close the gap to Verstappen.

The same can be said for Sainz. While it looks like Leclerc might have to settle for third in the world driver’s championship, it’s not farfetched to suggest that second in the constructors might be within reach for Ferrari. Even first could be possible if they can continue to challenge McLaren as they have been and a 2-3 at Baku would’ve helped immensely.

Sainz and Perez are two sides of the same coin. While their futures may differ, their positions in Formula 1 are not so distinct. It’s unlikely that Williams will be able to make any big step in development any time soon. They might be able to move to a comfortable place in the midfield, but that’s the best Sainz can hope for. With more fresh faces joining the grid, Sainz is at risk of falling into irrelevancy. Are teams like Red Bull or Mercedes likely to give the Spaniard a second shot when there might be others who can prove to be just as good, if not better? Coming to the end of his time with Ferrari, has Sainz done enough to prove himself? Or will this mark the tail end of his career?

Alternatively, Perez has been fortunate, so far, that Red Bull has not been inclined to repeat the brutal manner in which they’ve dumped underperforming drivers in previous years. In his 14th season in Formula 1, Perez is undoubtedly at the finale of his career. Red Bull might keep him for another year if they believe no other option is available, but it’s highly unlikely he’ll be around much longer. Whether Red Bull will commit to keeping Perez for next season is one question. The other i if Perez is also thinking, like Sainz, that this might be his last chance to prove himself a worthy six-time race winner to naysayers and critics alike.

With pressure like this, it isn’t surprising that the two came to clashes at Baku this weekend. Instead, it’s unfortunate that they came up against the one driver neither wanted to meet.

Namely: the ones who have everything to lose.