Charles Leclerc has long been praised for his skill in qualifying and, with his stats against past teammates, it’s clear why.
But his prowess in qualifying has also been a large motive for criticism among fans. Does it matter that a driver can qualify well if he falls back during the race? After all, points are only scored on Sunday. So should Leclerc’s qualifying skills be held to as high a standard as they are? And how will they help him against a seven-time world champion?
Throughout Formula 1
Since the moment he joined Sauber in 2018, Charles Leclerc has beaten every one of his teammates in qualifying head-to-head. Jointly, he’s beaten them 97-45 – an incredibly impressive stat for a driver who’s never had easy competition.
In 2018, Leclerc joined Marcus Ericsson at Sauber. Ericsson was far from a rookie at this point, with five years of experience in Formula 1. Fresh out of Formula 2 and new on the grid, Leclerc beat Ericsson 17-4 in qualifying. An outstanding feat for a rookie, his dominance against Ericsson was surely part of the reason Leclerc was promoted to Ferrari by the end of the season and Ericsson was dropped altogether.
But the impressive performances didn’t stop there. Fans might have expected Leclerc to find his match in four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel, but they were wrong. Leclerc beat Vettel 12-9 in his first year at Ferrari and 13-4 in their last as teammates. Despite the car being solidly at the back of the midfield for most of the season in 2020, Leclerc managed to put it on the podium twice and beat Vettel by 65 points, leading to the champion’s expulsion from Ferrari by the end of the season.
Despite being his longest-standing teammate in Formula 1, Sainz has yet to beat Leclerc in qualifying head-to-head over a season. With six races left in 2024 and a current standing of 12-5, Sainz will leave Ferrari having never beaten Leclerc in quali.
So, it’s clear to see why Leclerc has earned his reputation as being truly dominant in qualifying. Despite having only 143 starts in Formula 1 and a championship-contending car for debatably a season overall, Leclerc stands 11th in the list of pole sitters across the history of F1 with 26 pole positions and, undoubtedly, he will climb up this list the longer he stays in the sport.
But does any of this really matter?
One of the main criticisms Leclerc has faced throughout his time in Formula 1 is due to his pole-to-win conversion stat. Despite his impressive 26 poles throughout his career, Leclerc has only 7 wins to his name. Certainly, 7 is no small feat. Yet it’s a damning figure when, according to some, he has had 19 more opportunities to secure the win. Does a driver’s ability in qualifying matter if they can’t convert their results into wins?
For those of us who know best: the answer is yes.
Measuring Raw Speed
A lot of people have questioned why it matters that a driver is good in qualifying. Surely, when points are collected on race day, it is where a driver finishes that matters most. Of course, they’d be correct, but this angle misses the bigger picture.
Without a doubt, qualifying is the most accurate way to measure drivers against one another. Most notably, teammates. Compared to race day, qualifying is the only session where a driver’s performance is untouched by elements outside of their control. Naturally, there’s the odd strategy blunder from time to time or mechanical failure. But the goal is simple: go out and drive to the limit.
For the most part, drivers don’t have to worry about which tyres will work best or when it’s most opportune to pit. They don’t have to worry that crucial milliseconds could be lost during pitting or whether coming out in the middle of a DRS train could lose them precious time. So long as they have a gap ahead of them and no one crashes before they can cross the line, their performance will be wholly their own.
Of course, this perspective ignores some crucial elements of qualifying. Not every car will suit every driver and not every car will be set up to perform best in qualifying. There will be other facets that can hold a driver back. But if we consider the perfect scenario: one where the car suits both drivers and it’s set up to perform to its best. It will be fair to presume that the driver who comes out on top is superior when it comes down to pure, raw speed.
Therefore, when looking exclusively at qualifying, it’s clear that Leclerc stands a cut above the rest. You could easily argue that he’s one of the quickest – if not the quickest – on the grid when it comes down to a single lap. This quality of his often leads to unfair criticism when looking at particular race day performances, but Leclerc’s dominance in qualifying shouldn’t be written off. Especially when it will help him win a championship the day Ferrari finally provides a winning car.
Context Matters
While it may seem like the final “aha” for critics of Leclerc to use his pole-to-win ratio against him, it blatantly ignores the bigger picture and, most importantly, the surrounding context. That is: Leclerc puts cars on pole that should have never been there in the first place.
Throughout his career in Formula 1, there have been very few instances where Leclerc has driven a win-contending car. There was a brief period following the summer break in 2019 and another at the beginning of 2022. But, apart from that, if a Ferrari has won a race since Leclerc has been driving for the team, it’s fair to say that the deciding factor has been the drivers themselves.
Last year, X user @mercsogyny created a thread which broke down every single one of Leclerc’s poles and determined whether or not his failure to win was his fault or a result of external factors. Of 21 poles between Bahrain 2019 and the 2023 US Grand Prix, user @mercsogyny determined only 3 to be Leclerc’s own fault.
It’s clear to anyone who knows Formula 1 and motor racing that Leclerc is a victim of his own talent. 90% of the time he has failed to convert a pole to win, it’s been because of elements completely out of his control. Whether that’s the strategy or plain bad luck, or because Leclerc has very rarely been in a position where his car was race-win calibre. Leclerc’s pole-to-win ratio isn’t a testament to his inadequacy on race day but instead indicates his ability to outdrive his car in qualifying.
With this in mind, Leclerc’s general proficiency in putting his car on pole is a huge advantage for him. Sure, it might not make him any more likely to win against Max Verstappen behind him in the RB19 or Lewis Hamilton in the W10, but it puts him in the best possible position to beat everyone else.
The moment he has a championship-contending car, it will be of vital importance for Leclerc. Especially against a formidable contender like Verstappen or Hamilton. If that moment finally comes, won’t it be better for Leclerc to always be starting ahead of his teammate?
Leclerc’s Future in Ferrari
So, why does this matter for Charles Leclerc’s career?
Next year, Leclerc will be driving against one of the undisputed great talents of Formula 1. As a seven-time world champion, Lewis Hamilton is just about the pinnacle when it comes to competitive teammates. Sure, Sainz was strong and Vettel was a four-time champion in his own right, but there aren’t many who could surpass Hamilton when it comes to experience and skill.
Undoubtedly, Hamilton will be the greatest competition of Leclerc’s career. But will it mark his downfall?
It’s a hard bet to make. Leclerc is relatively untested, but he has a decent amount of cards in his hand at the moment. He has the seniority in the team and the loyalty, he’s young and adaptable. But, most importantly, he has the upper hand in qualifying. This is what will matter.
Since becoming teammates in 2022, George Russell has either beaten or matched Hamilton in qualifying head-to-head. Like Leclerc and Sainz, Russell has already surpassed Hamilton for their last season as teammates, currently standing 13-5.
It would be unfair to suggest that Hamilton has completely lost his touch in qualifying – and likely wrong – but there’s some factuality in stating that he doesn’t appear to have the edge he once had. Certainly, Russell is not easy competition, especially in qualifying. He proved that the moment he put a Williams in P2 in the rain back in 2021. He doesn’t, however, have the raw speed and consistency that Leclerc expresses in qualifying. Which isn’t a slight to Russell in the slightest. There aren’t many drivers who can compete with Leclerc over a single lap.
But the fact is: Russell shouldn’t be beating Hamilton in qualifying as easily as he is. And this doesn’t bode well for Hamilton. Because the last driver on the current grid that you want to be coming up against in qualifying when you’ve lost your touch is Charles Leclerc. Sainz, Vettel and Ericsson can all attest to that.
Of course, the previous sentiment arises in the face of this statement: “But points are scored on Sunday.” Which, perhaps, in earlier years might have had a little more weight. Looking at Leclerc’s performances this season, however, Hamilton might not be able to rely on this assurance.
A formidable force on race day, Hamilton might have been able to make up for being a position or two behind Leclerc in qualifying in the past. That was until this season when Leclerc, faced with a car that doesn’t destroy tyres at a rapid rate, was finally able to show his true capabilities on race day.
Back in 2021, Pirelli boss Mario Isola named Leclerc as one of the 3 best drivers at tyre management on the grid. Undoubtedly, this has never been proven more than at Monza this year. A surprise victory for the Monegasque, there has been plenty of discourse surrounding the Italian Grand Prix. While there was criticism of McLaren post-race for their two-stop strategy, this perspective misses the obvious:
Leclerc didn’t win because Ferrari chose the right strategy, he won because he outperformed his peers.
In hindsight, McLaren might have been able to continue the stint for as long as Leclerc did but, at the time, it didn’t appear to be an option. By the 17th lap on the hard tyres, they witnessed the degradation the Red Bulls had suffered in the first stint. Oscar Piastri himself even argued against the one-stop during the race, believing it unattainable. In the cooldown room following the race, Piastri stated he was “surprised [Leclerc] survived,” implying he doubted the one-stop was achievable.
But what proves this argument that Leclerc was the principal force behind the win in Monza, is looking at his teammate’s race. Initially, it appeared like Ferrari had made a mistake pitting Leclerc on lap 15. They missed out on the undertake, giving the McLarens the lead whilst also impairing what seemed to be their initial strategy: to stay out and attempt a one-stop. Instead, it was Sainz, running in P4 at the time, who got the favourable strategy, coming into the pits 4 laps later.
If anything, Sainz should’ve been the one to benefit most from the one-stop. With tyres 4 laps fresher than his teammate, he should’ve been in the preferred position to fight for the win or a podium position by the end of the race. At least, he should’ve managed better than Leclerc. But by lap 48, Sainz had virtually no pace left in his tyres and was helpless to the McLarens, both passing him easily. It’s a distinction we’ve seen between the Ferrari drivers all season, with Leclerc coming out on top every time. Sainz couldn’t compare when it came to protecting his tyres and this showed by the end of the race.
Undoubtedly, Leclerc is in the best form he’s ever been in. He’s one of the quickest over a single lap and one of the best at tyre management. He’s a strong driver on the offensive and defensive and, given the right car, he’ll be a formidable teammate and potential championship contender.
There’s no doubting Hamilton’s talent. He will forever be one of the most successful racing drivers of all time. But, despite all of this, he will not find an easy rival in Charles Leclerc next season.
Thinking Formula 
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