The Formula 1 rumour mill is spinning again. But, this time, there’s a new subject of whispers throughout the paddock. At the Mexican Grand Prix this past weekend, Sky Italia reporter Roberto Chinchero disclosed that Red Bull has made an offer to Argentinian rookie Franco Colapinto. At the beginning of this season, most fans of Formula 1 hadn’t even heard of Colapinto and now he could be in contention for one of the most coveted seats on the grid.

But what’s the likely outcome of these rumours? Could Colapinto be in the running for the other seat in the junior team next year instead of Liam Lawson? Or is he being considered as a serious candidate for that infamous second seat at Red Bull?

When it was announced that Logan Sergeant would be leaving Williams following the Dutch Grand Prix this year, no one was particularly surprised.

While Williams might have hoped that the American driver could make a significant step forward in his second season of Formula 1, Sargeant found himself at a stalemate. In 36 Grand Prixs, Sargeant only managed to secure a single point in 2023, finishing 21st in the World Driver’s Championship. Before his dismissal this season, he’d failed to score at all and currently stands 22nd.

But it wasn’t solely Sargeant’s lacklustre performances that lost him the seat at Williams. It was his proclivity for expensive crashes. In 2024, Sargeant has allegedly cost Williams €2,785,250, leaving him 2nd in the “Destructors Championship” (before Mexico), and €4,012,100 in 2023 when he “won” the title. Whilst his poor performances might have kept him in Williams for the rest of the season, the expenses he cost the team could not.

This wasn’t surprising for most Formula 1 fans. Not when they had already witnessed the same happen to Mick Schumacher back in 2022. What was surprising, however, was Williams’ choice to replace him:

Franco Colapinto.

Joining the Williams Racing Driver Academy in 2023, Colapinto debuted for Williams during Free Practice 1 at the British Grand Prix this season. Colapinto’s junior career was decent: winning the championship at the 2019 F4 Spanish Championship with Drivex and finishing 4th in the 2023 Formula 3 Championship with MP Motorsport. But, it wasn’t particularly notable. Before being promoted to the Formula 1 seat, he was 7th in the Formula 2 championship with one race win. Unsurprisingly, it was for this reason that there was a lot of incredulity and concern among fans following the announcement.

What value could Williams have in replacing a rookie with a rookie? Especially one as untried and unexceptional as Franco Colapinto had appeared.

It seemed a foolish decision from Williams. Why risk history repeating itself? Why not go for age and experience when youth and immaturity had failed before? In fact, this mindset seemed to be a growing sentiment across Formula 1. With 2024 being the first time in history a Formula 1 lineup had remained unchanged from the year before, it seemed that rookies were becoming more and more uncommon across the grid. Teams were beginning to lean towards experience, bringing back drivers like Nico Hulkenberg instead of taking a risk on those in the junior categories.

To an extent, it’s understandable why this was happening. Since 2020, there have been only a handful of rookies to join the grid. In 2020 there was Nicholas Latifi; in 2021 there was Mick Schumacher and Nikita Mazepin; in 2022 there was Zhou Guanyu; and in 2023 there was Oscar Piastri, Nyck De Vries and Logan Sargeant. Without a doubt, Piastri is the only outlier among these rookies. The rest are nothing to write home about. Either passable or downright bad, Piastri is the only rookie in four years who has managed to make a significant impact on the grid.

Sure, you could argue that Piastri is also the only one of these seven who was placed immediately in a front-running team with the opportunity to secure points and win races. But, realistically, it’s clear that the other six weren’t cut out for Formula 1. At the very least, not at the time they joined the grid.

For this reason, it’s understandable why most people were apprehensive when it was announced that Colapinto would be joining the grid halfway through the season. It seemed like the same story that had transpired plenty of times before. Where a driver was brought up to Formula 1 too early, or for ulterior incentives like money or marketability, and where they inevitably disappointed soon afterwards.

Except, this didn’t happen. Instead, in just five races, Colapinto managed to score 5 points and is currently already 4 places ahead of his predecessor in the World Driver’s Championship. Instead, Colapinto has qualified ahead of his teammate twice and just behind him the same amount of times. Despite having been thrown in at the deep end, Colapinto has managed to impress just about everyone across the grid and beyond, and now it’s being rumoured that he could be in contention for a seat in the big leagues.

Whether or not this rumour is true, it’s an interesting thought to consider.

Clearly, Colapinto deserves a spot on the grid next year. He’s proven himself more than he was ever expected to and has already claimed the hearts of so many. It would be a shame to see him go.

Of course, Williams doesn’t have a spot available for him. With Alexander Albon and Carlos Sainz Jr signed for the following season, there’s nowhere for Colapinto to go and, despite his results, it’s a strong enough lineup not to merit forgoing one for the Argentinian.

The rumour that Colapinto could be in talks to join the Red Bull family makes a little more sense. The junior team still has a spot unclaimed and, with Lawson replacing Daniel Ricciardo back in Austin, it looks like they’re still undecided regarding who will be filling the seat for the foreseeable season. While Lawson is the obvious choice, Colapinto throws a new spanner in the works for him.

It’s not the only option available, though. Throughout the season, rumours about Sergio Perez’s axing from Red Bull have been stirring. Cropping up back in 2023, many fans have long since been wondering when Perez’s time in Red Bull will come to an end. In all honesty, it’s abnormal that Perez has lasted so long in the team despite his mediocre and verging on dreadful performances in the past two seasons. Looking back on the likes of Daniil Kvyat, Pierre Gasly and Albon, Red Bull has a history of remorseless sackings. Particularly when it comes to the second seat to their prized driver, the team aren’t known for sympathy and understanding when it comes to poor performance.

Though Perez was a solid choice in the beginning, his inability to adapt to the car and make it work has lost Red Bull the constructors championship this year and, following another abject performance from Perez at his home Grand Prix this past weekend, has seemed to have lost them second place, too. While the money at stake with losing P2 is critical for the team during this time of insecurity, it’s not the only fear for Red Bull in the coming season.

Compared to the other three top teams, Red Bull has the weakest driver lineup for 2025. And, whilst Max Verstappen has been able to carry them in the past, with Ferrari and McLaren rapidly catching up and surpassing them more often than not, they’re in a stage of peril for their future prospects in Formula 1.

It would be foolish for Red Bull to keep Perez on. Though he’s a strong driver in the right car, unless Red Bull can find a quick fix for his struggles by the following year, he will likely end up dragging them down in the constructors championship the following season.

Whether Colapinto is seen as a potential replacement for Perez, is unclear. On paper, Yuki Tsunoda appears like the obvious choice. He has the experience and has beaten every teammate since Gasly left the team at the end of 2022. Still, though, the fact that Red Bull seems so hesitant to place him in the senior team makes this less feasible.

Without a doubt, Red Bull needs to find a solution quickly. But would Colapinto be the preferred alternative?

He has the results, though not many for the moment, and, as Helmut Marko stated, he has the “ice-cold determination” that could make him a solid choice for the second seat at Red Bull. Important, however, is his fanbase. One of the key merits of having Perez at Red Bull is his popularity across the continent of America. It’s clear across every Grand Prix in the United States, Canada and Mexico, that the Mexican driver is incredibly popular. It’s a particularly dedicated fanbase for Red Bull with reportedly 65% of merchandising sales going to Mexico alone.

Whilst this is an area Tsunoda might struggle to compare, Colapinto has the potential to draw large crowds in equal capacity. The Formula 1 Argentinian fan base is significant and it’s clear that they’ve taken Colapinto under their wing. With the announcement of a new deal with Globant (a digital service provider in Argentina and a sponsor of Colapinto), Domenicali has already hinted that Formula 1 could return to the country for the first time in 28 years.

In this sense, Colapinto would not be the worst option to replace Perez. The only thing standing in his way is his ties to Williams and, in light of this, it seems more likely that he won’t be racing for any time next season.

With certainty, Colapinto has earned himself a spot on the grid in the future. Whether they figure out a way for that to be season or it ends of being the one afterwards, it’s undoubtable that a team will make space for him to return. Clearly, he’s too talented to lose and he deserves a permanent seat in Formula 1.

And if that road takes him to Red Bull there’ll be a lot of people interested in what he might be able to do with it.