After the unprecedented signing of Lewis Hamilton to Ferrari back in February, Carlos Sainz Jr found himself seatless for the 2025 season. Despite a general consensus that he deserved another shot in a front-running team, Sainz’s decision to sign with Williams has left many wondering what went wrong. Was it bad luck and poor timing? Or was it misjudgment on the part of himself and his team?
While there was plenty of unjustified criticism of Ferrari at the time for letting Sainz go, the Spanish driver found himself in a uniquely advantageous position at the beginning of this season. With more than half the grid’s contracts ending in 2024, Sainz had an extensive pool to choose from. Only McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull’s driver lineups were secured and the latter’s grew increasingly unsure as the season developed and Sergio Perez’s form remained lacklustre.
For a while, Sainz was considered the driving force in the driver market. Decisions across the grid remained stagnant as he delayed making a decision regarding his future in the sport. With two race wins under his belt and the only driver outside of Red Bull to win during the dominance in 2023, it seemed like Sainz was in serious contention for the free seat at Mercedes or to replace Perez at Red Bull. If not for a top team, Sainz was the obvious option for the team leader position at Sauber (becoming Audi in 2026). With all these options available, many have been left bewildered by the decision finally announced in July.
So, what went wrong?
Mercedes: The Wrong Fit?
Hamilton’s departure from Mercedes and subsequent move to Ferrari wasn’t only a surprise to the motorsport world, but to Mercedes itself. In a recently published book – Inside Mercedes F1: Life in the Fast Lane – team principal Toto Wolff stated that he “had it on [his] radar that Lewis would go” but that he’d been caught off guard by how early the decision was made. Because of this, the spare seat at Mercedes was left without an obvious replacement for 2025.
This appeared like the perfect opportunity for Sainz. With the only other highly-rated drivers already having their futures secured – namely: Charles Leclerc, Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri – Sainz was considered by many as a top pick for the team from Brackley. In fact, it was further revealed by Wolff earlier this month that Sainz and his camp believed the same.
In a recent appearance on the High Performing Podcast, Wolff revealed: “The old man Sainz called me and said, ‘This is what’s happening.’” Evidently, Carlos Sainz Sr saw the opportunity to gain favour with the Mercedes team principal before negotiations could begin, hoping to give his son an advantage. At the time, it seemed like the driver market was swaying in Sainz’s favour, especially as he managed to secure an early race win at the Australian Grand Prix. But, clearly, something went wrong along the way.
Despite his victory in Australia, rumours emerged within the following three races that rookie Formula 2 driver – Andrea Kimi Antonelli – was being considered a potential replacement for Hamilton. Formula Regional Champion and Mercedes Junior, Antonelli performed so strongly in his junior career that he skipped Formula 3 to make his debut with Prema in F2 at the beginning of this season. For many, he was largely considered one of the most exciting upcoming talents at the time.
In April this year, Antonelli was given his first taste of F1 machinery as part of a two-day test with Mercedes. For many, this was a clear indication that the British-based team considered Antonelli a serious contender for the seat. In Miami, the rumour was affirmed when it emerged that the FIA had received a request to give the junior driver dispensation to race in the championship before he turned 18. Though it’s thought that Williams was the one to make the request, it proved the attention Antonelli had gained and the clear trajectory his career seemed to be making towards a spot in Formula 1 in the immediate future.
Sainz’s prospects in Mercedes only worsened as the first half of the season developed. Earlier in the year, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner found himself in the news when he was accused of inappropriate behaviour by a female colleague. Despite Horner’s denial of the accusation, the scandal resulted in a period of unrest throughout the team.
The first big blow was the announcement back in May that chief technical director Adrian Newey would be leaving the team. Further rumours emerged suggesting a falling out between Horner and ‘motorsport adviser’ Helmut Marko as well as recently crowned four-time world champion Max Verstappen’s father, Jos Verstappen. In March, Jos accused Horner of “playing the victim” and suggested the team was in “danger of falling apart”. In a separate interview, he announced that Horner would be “causing problems if he stays”.
Evidently, Wolff recognised the opportunity this turmoil presented for his team as he quickly set off on what he has since referred to as a “flirting” campaign. It would’ve been ideal for Mercedes to replace seven-time champion Hamilton with a highly-rated and in-his-prime Max Verstappen. This was a bad sign for Sainz. As the focus on Verstappen and Antonelli continued, many got the impression that Mercedes weren’t seriously considering Sainz as an option.
In August, Wolff admitted: “I thought all through the year that there was a window or that there was a possibility – it wasn’t zero.” For the first half of the season, Wolff loudly praised Verstappen to the media in the hopes of swaying him away from Red Bull. Though he was undoubtedly negotiating with other drivers across the grid – including Sainz – it was evident that Wolff was throwing most of his energy into stealing the Red Bull driver. And while Verstappen turned Wolff down over the summer, the almost immediate signing of Antonelli implied the team was never properly invested in Sainz.
Cleary, whatever talks Sainz and Mercedes shared had not been conducive for either side. It is generally believed that Mercedes offered Sainz a two-year contract in the shape of a ‘one-plus-one’ deal. Considering the fact that Sainz had already turned down a similar contract from Ferrari the previous year, the Spaniard’s apparent rejection of this offer was seemingly based on a desire for a longer-term commitment from the championship-winning team.
On the other side, it appeared like Mercedes was unwilling to commit to Sainz long-term when Antonelli was already being groomed as the future of the team. From an outside perspective, it looked like they either wanted a strong driver like Sainz to fill the team temporarily until Antonelli was ready, or to install a championship-material driver like Verstappen as the new focus of the team. When neither side got what they wanted, negotiations fizzled out and Sainz was forced to move on to new prospects.
Red Bull: Problems With the Fathers?
Despite having a confirmed driver lineup for 2025, Red Bull was considered another potential option for Sainz. Currently standing 251 points behind the newly crowned champion, Sergio Perez is having one of the worst seasons of his career.
Though the RB20’s current form is far from the success of its predecessor, there’s merit in arguing that Perez’s reoccurring poor performances have cost the team the constructors championship this year. He finds himself eighth in the 2024 drivers’ championship, ahead of Fernando Alonso in Aston Martin and behind every other driver across Ferrari, Mercedes and McLaren. Moreover, he is the only driver of the four teams to not secure a single race win this season, despite his teammate having managed eight.
Over the last triple header, Perez only managed to secure a measly 6 points. Less than both Alpine drivers and 40 points fewer than his teammate. Undoubtedly, this is not the kind of performance befitting of a driver in a championship-contending team. If Perez had managed to match his teammate over the past three races, Red Bull could still be in contention for the constructors championship. Instead, Red Bull have dropped back to third behind McLaren and Ferrari.
In a scathing interview with DAZN this past weekend, team adviser Helmut Marko stated: “For now the main thing was to win the championship for Max. But for our employees, it is a disappointment because they will not receive their bonuses as they depend on our position in the Constructors’ Championship.”
According to Motorsport Magazine, the estimated prize money for finishing first in the constructors’ championship is £106m, second £99m, and third £93m. This means that Red Bull could stand to lose £13m as a result of Perez’s poor performances. While the Mexican driver has recently asserted that rumours of his departure are unfounded and that his contract with Red Bull is solid, it’s unquestionable that Red Bull have been looking outside for his replacement.
Though it appeared like Daniel Ricciardo was the initial choice, his removal from the junior team and replacement with Liam Lawson suggests that Red Bull are considering their options. Consequently, this presented Sainz with another opportunity for his future. As a member of the Red Bull Junior Team programme, Sainz’s career started out in Red Bull with Toro Rosso. He has a history with the team which could have given him an advantage over others.
However, many asserted that the move was unlikely because of this history.
As an ex-Formula 1 driver and a rally world champion, Jos Verstappen and Carlos Sainz Sr were heavily involved in their sons’ careers. Graham Watson, former team manager of Toro Rosso when the two were teammates, emphasised the similarities between both fathers. About Verstappen, Watson said:
About Sainz Sr, Watson said:
“Carlos Sainz’s father, a driven and successful rally champion, did the same.”
While Watson asserts that the fatherly influence did not spill into any rivalry, a few have suggested otherwise. In a biography of Verstappen by F1 reporter Mark Hughes, Hughes writes that Marko gave Verstappen and his team “carte blanche” to make their own timing and tyre choices. Allegedly, Sainz’s camp were left with the impression that “they were not there on the same terms as the Verstappens”. It seems that this potential disproportionate treatment resulted in tension between the two sides.
Marko himself has since said that there was an “unhealthy relationship” in Toro Rosso at the time:
Marko told Auto Motor:
Given Red Bull’s current fragile state, it seems obvious that they’d want to avoid any recurrence of this drama. Jos Verstappen is still heavily involved in his son’s career and the same can be said for Sainz Sr. Leclerc, Sainz Jr’s current teammate, faced similar issues in Ferrari with the Sainz camp. Following the Italian Grand Prix, Sainz Sr suggested Ferrari was biased towards Leclerc and suggested the team frequently favoured him in strategy. Though the Maranello-based team have kept most grievances under wraps, Leclerc’s recent uncharacteristic complaints to the media suggest that tensions have long been building between the teammates.
While Sainz Jr renounced any problems with his current teammate and denied that he and Verstappen would have any issues if they found themselves in the same team once more, he was evidently ruled out of the potential lineup at Red Bull anyway.
Audi: Vaulting Ambition?
Even before the announcement of Hamilton’s move to Ferrari, many believed that Sainz was heavily linked to Sauber with the team transitioning into Audi for 2026. Considering the close relationship between Sainz Sr and Audi, the connection between driver and team appeared obvious. However, while many were expecting the move to unfold relatively easily, this did not occur.
From an outside perspective, it was clear from the beginning of the season that Sainz was reluctant to rush into anything. While Sainz was undoubtedly involved in negotiations with Audi, with more attractive options on the table it’s obvious that they weren’t his first choice.
This sentiment was apparently not reciprocated by Audi.
In an interview with Austria’s Kleine Zeitung newspaper, Marko claimed that Sainz had a “very lucrative offer” from Audi. While this was unconfirmed by either side, it’s clear that Audi were dedicated to Sainz as the future of the team. As the season developed and no announcements were made, it became increasingly apparent that Sainz was unenthusiastic about the project and clearly this wasn’t well received by the team.
In response to the rumours regarding Sainz and the offer made to him, Sauber CEO Andreas Seidl stated:
He doubled down further:
Though this wasn’t thought to mean much at the time, it was a clear statement of Audi’s disapproval of Sainz’s hesitation and indecision. Clearly, Audi was looking for a long-term commitment to the team as they pursued success in Formula 1. This meant hiring drivers who were willing to sign up for the long haul. Sainz was not that driver.
The reason for Sainz’s procrastination is clear. Coming from a race-winning seat at Ferrari he was striving for one of two options:
- A long-term contract from a team that would get him results from the onset; or
- A flexible contract that would allow him to jump ship once it became clear who had nailed the 2026 regulations.
Evidently, Audi could offer Sainz neither of these. In the end, Audi gave up pursuing Sainz and, with experienced driver Hulkenberg already signed, chose to go with inexperience and a fresh perspective in Gabriel Bortoleto.
Did He Make the Right Decision?
It’s apparent that Sainz’s final decision to move over to Williams was based on the fact that they could provide him what Audi couldn’t: flexibility. On the surface, this isn’t necessarily a bad decision from Sainz. Clearly, as negotiations with Red Bull and Mercedes failed and no comparable opportunities presented themselves, he and his team chose the option that allowed them greater freedom for his future career.
But for a lot of people, he had the opportunity to end up in a much better position if a few crucial mistakes hadn’t been made.
First: Sainz and his team overestimated his market value.
Previous to the announcement that Hamilton would be joining the team, Corriere dello Sport correspondent Fulvio Solms stated that:
It’s generally believed that Ferrari offered Sainz a one-year renewal, but the offer was turned down as the Spaniard attempted to negotiate for more. At the time, this might have appeared like a good idea to Sainz and his team. Sainz surely hoped, through receiving offers from teams across the grid, to urge Ferrari into a more generous offer.
In hindsight, this was a mistake.
For anyone paying attention, it was clear that Ferrari had made a decision regarding the team’s future. This was illuminated through a series of dismissals across the team following the 2022 season. Most notably, Mattia Binotto – former Ferrari team principal. After a failure of a championship charge, one which was noted by many as a result of a reluctance to commit to Leclerc as the number one driver, Binotto was let go.
Looking past the clear need for a change in leadership, the decision to replace Binotto with Vasseur was made for a clear reason. He had a strong history and familiarity with Leclerc, the pair having worked together at ART in the GP3 series and at Alfa Romeo when the Monegasque first joined the grid. The appointment was a clear statement from Ferrari and John Elkann, summarised plainly by Solms:
Whether Sainz and his team chose to ignore this fact, or whether they genuinely believed Sainz still had a chance to change their mind, it’s unclear. What is clear, however, is that his reluctance to accept the less attractive contract offer has now left him at the back of the grid for the foreseeable future.
Undoubtedly, this mistake from Sainz and his team is a clear result of the belief that his market value and bargaining rights were far higher than they materialised to be. Evidently, the Spaniard’s camp believed he’d be receiving legitimate offers from teams like Mercedes and Red Bull. Instead, rumours suggest both teams were only willing to give him contracts that were just as unappealing or even more than he was ever offered at Ferrari. This suggests that even if Hamilton had decided to remain at Mercedes, Sainz would have struggled to leverage his offers from outside teams to negotiate a better contract.
Unlike Mercedes, Ferrari did not have a clear vision for the future. While Oliver Bearman is seen as a prospective option for the team, Ferrari’s decision to give Hamilton a three-year contract implies they were flexible.
Clearly, Carlos Sainz is not Lewis Hamilton. But if he’d accepted the offer from Ferrari before Hamilton had come to the team, there’s worth in believing he might’ve been in a far more profitable position than he is now. Instead of spending the next year or two at the back of the grid, Sainz could have spent it fighting for more race wins and further proving himself in a team he was already established in.
Ferrari looks to be on the rise once more and could be fighting for the championship next season. Rather than sticking around hoping that he could present himself as a future world champion to a front-running team, Sainz will likely have to pray they’re paying attention as he fights for points in a Williams.
Second: Sainz had unrealistic expectations regarding his future.
In the right car and the right team, Sainz could be world champion. The problem is: all of the current championship-contending teams have already moulded themselves around a number 1 driver or partnership.
Red Bull has Verstappen; Ferrari has Leclerc (and now Hamilton, also); McLaren has Lando Norris (and potentially, Oscar Piastri in the future); Mercedes has Russell.
While Sainz is a strong driver, it’s not unfair to suggest that he is a level below this calibre of driver. In four years as teammates, Sainz has never managed to beat Leclerc head-to-head over a season. Certainly, he can occasionally beat a top-level driver like Leclerc. But any advantage he’s had has only ever been temporary and his results are often inconsistent. Up against Norris during their time in McLaren, Sainz only just managed to beat him despite having experience on his side. If Sainz can’t beat these drivers, it’s evident that he would also struggle to beat an in-his-prime Verstappen or a strong, already-established Russell.
Sainz has made it clear throughout his time at Ferrari that he is unwilling to accept a second driver role. This isn’t a bad quality, especially for a racing driver. However, unfortunately for Sainz, it was unlikely that Mercedes or Red Bull would be willing to wholly commit to a driver like this with Verstappen and Russell already in their ranks. His results aren’t good enough to supplant either and, considering the current dynamic and tension between Sainz and Leclerc at Ferrari, they’d have been wary about unsettling the existing team structure.
If Sainz was unwilling to accept this, it might have made more sense to commit to a midfield team with the hope that they make the kind of development McLaren has managed over the past two seasons. This isn’t likely to be Williams, who hasn’t finished higher than eighth in the constructors’ for the past five years and whose budget is one of the lowest on the grid.
Now, there’s a chance Sainz might never make his way up the grid again.
Thinking Formula 
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