Three weeks ago, after a year of speculation, it was announced that Sergio Perez would leave Red Bull before his contract’s end. His replacement: Kiwi rookie, Liam Lawson.

There was a lot to be said about this decision. Choosing Lawson over Yuki Tsunoda, despite having three more years of experience in Formula 1, was a prominent criticism. After beating every one of his teammates since Pierre Gasly, Tsunoda seemed to be the obvious replacement for Perez. Thus, many were left confused when it was Lawson who was chosen for the infamous second seat at Red Bull.

For many of us, this situation at Red Bull is reminiscent of the one they found themselves in in 2019. But this leads many to ask: is the reoccurring issue of the second seat at Red Bull a result of the shock deterioration of Perez’s driving? Or does it suggest a long-festering issue within the team?

More importantly, of course, is the question: how long can Max Verstappen hold it all together?

It became clear halfway through the 2024 season that cracks were beginning to emerge across Red Bull. The reigning champions hadn’t managed to replicate the success of the car from the season before. Whilst they’d started one foot ahead of the rest, they soon found themselves falling behind. Though many had pointed fingers at Perez the season before for failing to replicate his teammate’s success, it became clear that the Mexican driver’s difficulties had more to do with a long-standing issue with the car.

With this, many felt a sense of deja vu. As Verstappen managed to draw results out of the problematic car, leaving his teammate behind, we were reminded of previous seasons and a blip that was once believed to be temporary. But now, we’re left wondering how temporary this blip actually was and whether or not Red Bull has done a good enough job of ensuring it never happened again.

In 2005, Austrian conglomerate company Red Bull purchased the Minardi team and rebranded it as Scuderia Toro Rosso for the following season. As one of two Formula One constructors owned by the company, Toro Rosso functioned as a junior team to Red Bull Racing, intending to develop the skills of promising drivers for the senior team. And for a long time, it acted in this role.

Sebastian Vettel, Max Verstappen, Daniel Ricciardo, Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon all drove for Toro Rosso before making their debut for the senior team. Whilst other top teams could bargain for their Academy drivers to be placed in the midfield and lower teams they have existing partnerships with (Ferrari with Sauber and Haas; Mercedes with Williams), Toro Rosso provided Red Bull with a place to test and develop two of their most bright prospects before their promotion.

But in recent years, Toro Rosso (later to become Alpha Tauri and most recently Visa Cash App Racing Bulls F1 Team) has drifted away from this role. At the end of the 2023 season, Ricciardo said he felt the team was “not a junior team anymore”. This was later confirmed by newly appointed CEO Peter Bayer – “We certainly will not be a B-team.” – and Red Bull Racing team boss Christian Horner – “Alpha Tauri is owned by the same shareholders as Red Bull Racing, but is an independent team.”

In a sense, this change in narrative aligned with what we’d seen in the second Red Bull team over the past few seasons. As drivers like Gasly remained in the team despite already having a chance in Red Bull and as his replacements were more senior, experienced drivers (Nick De Vries and Ricciardo), it became clear that Alpha Tauri and VCARB were intended to operate beyond the role of junior team to Red Bull Racing. Whilst this change would be important for pushing the team’s success forward, it has left Red Bull Racing in a precarious position. After the mess of 2019 and 2020, it appears like Red Bull have done little to improve their situation and, in fact, have found themselves in the same place as five years ago.

So, when did it all go wrong?

Daniel Ricciardo

“He rang me to say I’m going to Renault. I said ‘You what? Is this a wind-up for the summer holidays?” Christian Horner about Ricciardo’s departure.

Ricciardo’s departure at the end of the 2018 season sent shockwaves across the paddock. Not only for the fans but for the team itself. No one was expecting Ricciardo to leave, least of all Red Bull itself, and the team was left scrambling for a replacement for the 7-time winner.

Naturally, their attention turned to their junior team. At the time, Toro Rosso had rookie Pierre Gasly and Brendon Hartley driving for them. Numerous reliability issues and poor luck plagued the team throughout the 2018 season, particularly for Hartley. With two more non-finishes than the Frenchman, Hartley finished the season in 19th, four places and 25 points behind his teammate. As a result, Gasly was seen as the preferred replacement for Ricciardo despite only having a year of experience and he was promoted to the senior team for the 2019 season.

Pierre Gasly and Alexander Albon

“Red Bull is in a unique position with the four cockpits that it has, that we are able to move the deck.” Christian Horner said following Gasly’s demotion.

Unfortunately, Gasly’s short-lived stint in Red Bull Racing did not occur like he or the team might have wanted. Qualifying seventeenth in his first race and finishing out of the points, Gasly’s performance was left wanting and failed to live up to that of his predecessor.

In the following race in Bahrain, Gasly again failed to qualify in the top ten and retired from sixth place with a driveshaft issue at the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. He scored points at the following six races but finished a lap behind the leaders at the Canadian, French and Austrian Grands Prix, the latter of which was won by Verstappen. His best result with Red Bull Racing came at the British Grand Prix where he finished fourth after Verstappen and Vettel collided ahead.

Whilst Red Bull team principal Christian Horner and advisor Helmut Marko stated that the team intended to keep Gasly until the end of the season, Gasly was dropped ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix and replaced by rookie and Toro Rosso driver Alexander Albon. At that stage of the season, Gasly was sixth in the drivers’ championship with 63 points. Verstappen, meanwhile, had recorded 181 points, two race wins and five podium finishes.

Though Albon finished the 2019 season closer to Verstappen (scoring 76 points during his nine races at Red Bull to Verstappen’s 97), the following year his performance imitated Gasly’s. By the end of the season, Albon finished with 105 points to Verstappen’s 214 putting him 7th in the driver’s world championship, only 30 points ahead of Gasly in the Alpha Tauri. He was then dropped from Red Bull and demoted to the role of test and reserve driver for 2021.

Sergio Perez

“The car became more narrow in its performance window. He struggled with that compared to Max. Such an enormous gulf in points between the two drivers.” Christian Horner following Perez’s departure.

Unlike his predecessors, Perez started off relatively strong in the second seat at Red Bull. Dropped from Racing Point as the team became Aston Martin and took on Sebastian Vettel in his place, many had seen it as an injustice. Perez had finished the 2020 season in 4th and had secured his maiden win in Sakhir in one of the most talked about moments of the year. It was for this reason that Red Bull chose to replace Albon with Perez – the first time the team had hired a driver outside of the Junior Programme since Mark Webber.

With his teammate in contention for the world championship for the first time, Perez had the difficult job of keeping up with Verstappen without challenging him unnecessarily. And though he finished outside of the top 3 for the 2021 season, Perez had a hand in assisting Verstappen throughout the championship. Most notably, in Abu Dhabi where his defensive work against Lewis Hamilton helped his teammate close the seven-second gap between them. Verstappen especially was appreciative of Perez, saying: “It’s very rare to have a teammate like that … he was a real team player and I really hope we can continue this for a long time.”

By May of the following year, Perez had signed on with Red Bull until 2024. He had another strong season, securing two wins and finishing only three points behind the runner-up Charles Leclerc for his career-best of third. On paper, 2023 looked to be another strong season for Perez as he finished runner-up to his teammate with another two race wins under his belt. However, many now consider 2023 as the beginning of a downward trend in Perez’s performance.

Though Perez managed to beat the other 18 drivers on the grid and his team secured the Constructors Championship, Perez’s performance was incredibly lacking in comparison to his teammate. Finishing the year with 19 wins and 575 points, many pointed out that Verstappen had won the Constructors Championship independent of Perez’s efforts. Mercedes, the runners-up for that season, finished with 409 points and, for this reason, many pointed out how Perez had failed to compare to his teammate’s dominance across the season.

Most significantly, Perez’s form in qualifying dropped drastically halfway through the season. Following Miami and a statement performance from Verstappen, Perez qualified out of the top five for the following five races (Monaco P20, Spain P11, Canada P12, Austria P15, Britain P15). While he managed to make his way back up the grid each time, many criticised this position, citing that it was the car’s race pace that allowed him to easily make up for his poor qualifying performance. In light of this, many wondered if Perez would struggle even further in a less competitive car.

“We have to have two drivers who finish in the points. Max is more than 200 points ahead of Sergio. This gap has cost us heavily in the constructors’ standings.” Helmut Marko had to say about Perez’s performance in 2024.

This concern was proven valid in 2024. Finishing eighth in the Drivers Championship with 152 points and as the only driver in the top four constructors without a race win, Perez’s departure at the end of the season was anticipated. For the first time since 2019, Red Bull finished outside of the top 2 in the Constructors and many accredited this loss to Perez’s poor performance. From Miami onwards, Perez failed to finish on the podium once. With an average finishing position of 7.9 and a qualifying position of 9.25, Perez was beaten by his teammate 1/23 in every metric. In comparison, Verstappen completed the 2024 season with an average finishing position of 2.96 and a qualifying position of 2.92.

Liam Lawson

“One thing we will be looking to do is protect Liam from is expectation, and of course, when Alex and Pierre were with the team, Max wasn’t the four-time world champion. 

He hadn’t won a world championship at that point, but we have a very clear positioning within the team with where Max is at in his career, and what we need from the second driver.” Christian Horner on Lawson’s appointment to Red Bull.

It was clear after Perez’s performance in 2024 that something needed to change in Red Bull. Though there’s room to argue that Perez’s struggles stemmed from a fundamental issue with the car, the gap between himself and Verstappen was unacceptable for a team like Red Bull. Though it’s natural for this to happen in Formula 1, the removal of Perez brings back light to the brewing challenge Red Bull has been facing since Ricciardo’s departure in 2018. Who should they put in that infamous second seat?

Now, five years later, Red Bull find themselves back in the same position as they did all those years ago. With a rookie in the junior team and another driver they’re evidently unwilling to promote, there’s no clear option to replace Perez. After so many years and the same reoccurring issues, you’d expect Red Bull to have learnt from their mistakes. But with the announcement that Lawson will be joining the team – a controversial choice for a decent amount of fans – it appears they have not.

This isn’t to say that Lawson is a terrible choice for Red Bull. Merely, he’s a risky one. The same risky choice Red Bull arguably made with Gasly and with Albon. They’ve already witnessed the unpredictability of bringing a driver up too early. Certainly, being thought of as one of the top-performing drivers in 2021 proved that Gasly could’ve been fit for the spot beside Verstappen. Equally, Albon has proven his consistency in the years spent in Williams. But is Red Bull willing to wait for Lawson to adapt? Or will we be witnessing a repeat of the past five years once more?

An Underused Junior Team

The problem Red Bull now faces starts with Daniel Ricciardo but it rests on Pierre Gasly. Arguably, the way Red Bull handled Gasly’s career is responsible for the uncertainty of their driver partnership for 2025.

For one, Red Bull should have given Gasly more time to develop than the half-a-season he was given. But, beyond that, they never should have kept Gasly in the junior team as long as they did.

It’s contentious whether or not Red Bull ever fully intended to commit to Tsunoda. With his ties to Honda, Tsunoda’s future in Red Bull has been unclear ever since it was announced that their partnership with the Japanese company would be ending in 2025. Likely, it’s because of this that Red Bull was unwilling to promote Tsunoda to the senior team. In this case, however, the empty seat left by Gasly’s departure in 2023 should have been utilised more effectively.

In hindsight, replacing Gasly with De Vries was a poor choice. Potentially, they believed his seniority and experience made him a possible future contender for the second seat at Red Bull. But selecting De Vries over a driver from the junior programme was a poor decision. They wasted five months that could have been used to develop someone for the senior team on a driver they were evidently unwilling to commit to. Replacing De Vries with Ricciardo was detrimental for the same reason. Truthfully, it feels like Red Bull has been scrambling unnecessarily for options for two seasons now.

Red Bull did it right with Tsunoda. Giving him three years in the junior team to develop and grow was the sensible decision if they were preparing him to team up with Verstappen in the future. Since Gasly, Tsunoda has beaten every single one of his teammates. Even if he might never have reached Verstappen’s calibre, at least he was somewhat prepared to assist him as Perez had done in 2021 and 2022. It’s for this exact reason that choosing Lawson feels particularly senseless. Not because Tsunoda is a vastly better driver than Lawson, but because Lawson should have been given the same level of preparation.

Instead of competing in the 2023 Super Formula Championship, Lawson should have taken Gasly’s place in VCARB. Or, if Red Bull really were considering placing Ricciardo back in the senior team, they should’ve had him drive for the junior team for the entire season and then, after resolving he wasn’t in a position to replace Perez, his spot should have been given to Lawson in 2024.

Instead, it feels like Red Bull have found themselves in the exact same position as they did in 2019. Where Lawson is Gasly, young and unprepared, and everyone is expecting him to be demoted halfway through the season only to be replaced by another rookie like Isack Hadjar who could also crumble under the pressure.

Summary

In conclusion, despite the advantage Red Bull has managed to gain over its competitors having a junior team, they have failed to use it in a productive manner. Indecision regarding its role in the sport and a clear uncertainty amongst those in leadership positions regarding the team’s future has put Red Bull back in the same place they found themselves in all those years ago.

Certainly, it’s too early to completely write off Lawson. There’s a chance he might surprise everyone and be exactly what Red Bull has needed for so long. However, there’s a greater possibility that the same mistakes are being made again as a young, untested driver is made to measure unfairly against one of the best on the current grid. Verstappen is better than he ever was in 2019 and it’s clear now that despite how good Gasly and Albon have proven themselves to be in the years since, being teammates with the Dutchman is no easy feat.

Whether Red Bull will learn from their mistakes and give Lawson a chance, we will find out this season. If not, it’s highly likely that we will witness the same chaos of 2019 and 2020 once again.

For now, Red Bull can lean on Verstappen to carry the team to success. But how long will this last? Without a clear future for the team, Red Bull may have one of the most memorable downfalls the sport has ever seen.