The return of Formula 1 has been highly anticipated after the excitement of the closing rounds last season. With McLaren beginning to creep ahead and Red Bull falling behind, many wondered what the chances of a proper championship battle in 2025 could be. This past weekend, Formula 1 returned to Melbourne with one of the most unpredictable season openers we’ve seen in a long time. And now, we might know our answer.

McLaren: a dominant season?

Coming out of testing, it was clear that McLaren was going to be a force this season. They’d looked strong, despite evident attempts to conceal their advantage, and many considered them to be obvious contenders for both the constructors’ and the driver’s championships this year. Little did we know, however, just how dominant they were going to be.

By the midpoint of the race, both McLaren drivers – Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri, respectively – had pulled a 16-second lead over the current world champion, Max Verstappen, in P3. When the rest of the grid appeared to be struggling on almost 30-lap old intermediate tyres, the McLarens continued to pull away.

Many have theorised that the lack of degradation faced by the McLarens is a result of the brake drums they introduced this season. A feature the team put a lot of effort into hiding during testing and, apparently, for good reason.

Speaking to the media, Christian Horner (Red Bull team principal) said: “I think it’s different to everybody, yes, and what’s quite strange is that [McLaren] enjoy great warm-up, but also very low degradation. Usually one comes at the expense of the other.”

But the new brake drums aren’t the only feature racing fans have been discussing. This Monday following the Grand Prix, the FIA has come out with a new statement regarding the controversial ‘mini DRS’ McLaren had implemented during the second half of the 2024 season.

In this statement, the FIA states: “Having analysed footage from the rear wing deformations combined to the static deflections measured inside the FIA garage in Melbourne, the FIA has concluded that sufficient grounds exist for a tougher test to be introduced from the forthcoming Chinese Grand Prix on the upper rear wing.”

It’s contestable what effect this decree could have on the dominance McLaren displayed this past weekend. This early in the season and with the conditions during the opening race, it’s difficult to say whether or not the lead Norris and Piastri managed to build was a result of the ‘mini DRS’ the car features, or if other factors hold equal sway.

Undoubtedly, McLaren is going to be the one to beat this year. They have the full package: speed, low degradation, and two strong drivers in Norris and Piastri. Whether they can work through the strategy errors they made last season, however, will be the biggest challenge for the team. But if they can, they will be a formidable force.

Ferrari: a lost cause?

Like in testing, the Grand Prix in Australia this past weekend can’t be considered an accurate representation of the season ahead. With the prediction for rain having been apparent from the beginning of the weekend, it’s clear that some teams would have set their cars up to respond to this. Ferrari, seemingly, being the key culprit.

Post-qualifying, Charles Leclerc had told Sky Sports Italy: “From this morning the performance wasn’t like yesterday. I think I know what went wrong but I have to see the data first, we did the right thing and we had to lose some performance but it was the right thing to do, but I won’t go into details.”

Evidently, Ferrari had anticipated heavier rainfall than was experienced and had set the car up to respond to this. Though it had backfired for them – leaving both drivers stranded in the midfield for the majority of the race and being written off by a strategy blunder towards the end anyway – we can at least assume that the Ferrari’s performance isn’t as bad as it appears.

On Saturday, both Andrea Stella (McLaren team principal) and Toto Wolff (Mercedes team principal) made separate statements that they believed Ferrari’s performance in qualifying hadn’t been representative.

To Sky Sports, Stella said: “I don’t really take Ferrari’s performance today at face value. I think they are much closer than the gaps would show.”

Similarly, Wolff commented: “At the front, you can see how close it is between Verstappen and the two Ferraris that were not quick this time around, but they are definitely there.”

Whether they’re mistaken or not, the former seems doubtable. Since post-testing and across the weekend, both the drivers and the rest of the team have come off as noticeably self-assured. Leclerc himself has made it clear he intends to pursue his maiden world championship this season and it’s unlikely he’d do so if he wasn’t at least decently confident in their chances.

Whether this positivity will keep up after China, however, we’ll have to wait and see.

Red Bull: a one-man show.

It’s become clear over the past two seasons that the window for the Red Bull’s dominance is incredibly small. Verstappen’s success over the past four years has been dependent on him being able to perform within this window. But it’s clear, as teams like McLaren begin to close the gap, that it’s not productive.

Sergio Perez’s removal at the end of last season was necessary. That isn’t to say his replacement was obvious, though. In the past year, it’s become increasingly apparent that there might not be enough drivers able to perform in this current Red Bull. And, if they do exist, they might not be as available as the team would like.

Liam Lawson wasn’t the public’s favourite choice for the replacement. It was a peculiar decision to go for Lawson, especially when Red Bull had already experienced twice before how inexperienced drivers struggle in the second seat. However, there’s also an argument to be made that Red Bull has witnessed how an experienced driver can struggle, too. After all, Perez had been in Formula 1 for a decade before he made the move to Red Bull.

Evidently, it’s too early to write Lawson off. Having never driven in Australia before, growing pains were always going to be inevitable. But without a doubt, qualifying P18 – behind Gabriel Bortoleto in Kick Sauber, Jack Doohan in Alpine, and Isack Hadjar in Racing Bulls -was not what Red Bull, or Lawson, would have expected nor hoped for.

Whether he can take the necessary step up in time to assist in the championship fight, we will have to wait and see. But what is becoming more and more clear is that Red Bull is struggling to find a driver able to perform within the car’s window. And though they appear to be preparing to compete for the driver’s championship for the fifth year in a row, the constructors might continue slipping further out of their hands until they find a solution.

Looking at Australia alone, you’d be right in assuming that McLaren will run away with both championships this season. If not for the unpredictable conditions, Norris and Piastri would have secured an easy 1-2 and maintained a substantial gap to their competitors behind. And though Verstappen will always put up a good fight no matter the circumstances, it looks like the conditions of the end of last season are likely to continue.

However, it’s still far too early to write off a championship battle. With the new rear wing test coming into play this weekend, teams like Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes might be given the opportunity to catch up. We already witnessed in 2022 with Leclerc how an early lead can be stifled. So though Norris looks to be the one to beat for the moment, it’s not too late for another to take his place.