Liam Lawson’s stint in the senior team has come to an end – two races into the season. After exiting in Q1 three times in a row and two dismal P20 starts, it was announced a week after the Chinese Grand Prix that Lawson would make the move back to Racing Bulls. His replacement: Yuki Tsunoda.
Of course, this isn’t what Red Bull want so early in the season. The second seat has been an issue for seven years now, with four different drivers struggling to keep up with the now four-time world champion, Max Verstappen.
But while the media once pushed that it was Verstappen who was the common denominator in these drivers’ demises, the narrative has finally started to shift.
The Long-Running Second Seat Problem
At the end of the last season, almost everyone in the Formula 1 community expected Sergio Perez to be gone by the following year. Finishing eighth, almost 300 points behind his newly-crowned world champion teammate for the second year in a row, Perez couldn’t possibly stay at the team any longer. Not if Red Bull wanted any chance at winning the constructors’ championship again.
But now, three races into the season, it appears like Red Bull won’t be solving this issue in the near future. With Lawson out after only two grand prix weekends, it’s clear that his, Perez’s, Alex Albon’s and Pierre Gasly’s struggles had very little to do with their own skill.
Is Poor Driver Management the Real Issue?
Poor driver management is one thing. Other than Perez, every driver brought into the second Red Bull seat has been untested and unprepared. Gasly had a single season under his belt, Albon half, Lawson even less. That’s not to say drivers can’t succeed with so little preparation. We’ve seen it happen before – Verstappen and Hamilton, most notably – but very few of them have been given so little leeway and growing space as Red Bull have.
Evidently, Formula 1 is a competitive sport. It’s ruthless. But at what point does ruthlessness stray into impatience? How can any team expect to develop a strong team pairing if they’re unwilling to give their drivers the time to develop.
Liam Lawson is not a bad driver. Without a doubt, he’s not the kind of driver who qualifies P20 in a decent car. There’s a fundamental issue with the RB21 the same as there was with the RB20. A problem that wasn’t obvious when it was the quickest on track and Verstappen was winning races with a 20 second lead. But now that it’s barely scraping podiums, it’s hard to argue otherwise.
Why Tsunoda May Not Be the Answer
As much as a lot of fans would like it to be true, Yuki Tsunoda isn’t the solution. Though Red Bull should have promoted him over Lawson in the first place, it’s clear that he’s destined to face the same issues as his predecessors.
Tsunoda had a good start to the weekend in Suzuka. In practice three he finished P6, a tenth behind his teammate. But the optimism didn’t last long for the Japanese driver. A mistake in Q2 had him qualifying P15 and he only managed to make up three positions on race day, just out of the points.
Red Bull’s 2025 Title Hopes and the Bigger Threat Ahead
With Verstappen securing his first win for the season this past weekend, Red Bull might still have the chance to fight for the driver’s title again. But, undoubtedly, the constructors appears to be long out of reach. And with Mercedes rumoured to have the dominant engine next season, how long will it be until Red Bull is truly competitive again?
For half a season now, the rumour mill has been spinning throughout Formula 1. With important personnel fleeing Red Bull at an alarming rate and a sudden downshift in their performance, how long will Verstappen want to stick around?
A decade into the sport, Verstappen has already played the waiting game. For five years, he put up with unreliable machinery, it wouldn’t be out of reason to believe that he’d be unwilling to do the same again. So how long can Red Bull continue relying on his gifts to carry them to championships?
If Verstappen moves elsewhere or leaves the sport altogether, what do they have? Whether they’re planning to build the future around Lawson, or Isack Hadjar, or Arvid Lindblad, if Verstappen leaves any time soon, how ready will any of these drivers be to step up to the task?
The Future Without Verstappen
For years, Red Bull have built their future around Verstappen. They’ve relied on him to carry the team results ever since Daniel Ricciardo left for Renault. Four drivers in and now on their fifth, they still haven’t found someone to replace him and it’s getting to a point where they might never again.
And without Verstappen, what is Red Bull’s future?
Whether they continue to look inwards, hoping someone from the development programme will finally have the capacity to step up to the role, or look outwards for talent elsewhere, Red Bull need to make a decision soon.
Thinking Formula 
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